hey guys
welcome to our channel cnf
today we will talk about the topic of
china chips will china dominate the
world semiconductor market in five years
nowadays a trending voice from the
chinese internet has been advising that
chinese netizen should calm down and
OEM7 Suppliers be
confront to the gap existing in the
global chips market between china and
developed countries rather than blindly
think that china will catch up with and
surpass these countries in a short time
as mentioned above we recognize that
china will finally do all of these and
take the shares of neighboring countries
europe and the united states to realize
a domestic only industrial chain
we will prove our point of view from
three aspects the current situation of
all manufacturing links in the
industrial chain china's opportunities
and china's upcoming challenges
there are nine links of the industrial
chain
the key to predicting the window period
is to clarify the gap between each link
of the chip manufacturing industrial
chain
especially the advanced nodes
the whole way for manufacturing is
divided into nine manufacturing links
including wafer cleaning diffusion cvd
mask aligner coater and developer
etching ion implantation cmp and testing
different links of different paths and
progress
first is four years for chinese wafer
cleaning system gap
japan has the most advanced wafer
cleaning system capability and takes
over 65 percent of market shares
globally
tokyo electron tell launched celesta scd
single wave cleaning system in 2021
creating a pattern collapse free drying
method that uses a supercritical fluid
and can well match the 5 7 nanometer
node production line
china's most advanced cleaning machine
can match the 14 nanometers production
line
the exciting news is at present cleaning
systems under development is for 5 7
nanometer node
in may 2021 acm research released a
wafer cleaning system for advanced node
applications named ultra cwb system
which is equipped with the sc1 and sc2
megasonic functions and matching 14
nanometers node line
referring to the development history of
japan we believe that the gap between
china's manufacturing level and the
world's advanced node level is four
years
second is five years for chinese
diffusion equipment gap
in the oxidation diffusion
equipmentsector japan is still the most advanced
country with a technical level also
matching 5 7 nanometer node line
accounting for about 80 percent of the
global market share
kakusai electric dd802v vertical
diffusion furnace is one of the most
advanced vertical diffusion equipment
which can perfectly match the 5 7
nanometer node line
at present china's nora technology group
can independently produce a 14
nanometers oxidation diffusion furnace
to match the 14 nanometers chip
manufacturing line
we expect that it will take china five
years to reach an advanced technical
level and realize domestic
replacement third is nine years for
chinese cbd equipment gap
the united states and japan are the two
main players in the cvd market both of
which can match 5 7 nanometer node
technology accounting for about 75 of
the global market share
it is also one of the links to china
that depends heavily on imports with a
domestic rate of about two percent in
years of the 2010. however nora
technology group has made breakthroughs
in recent years
equipment matching 28 nanometers node
line has been successfully introduced to
the customers and a 14 nanometers node
product is on a trial run
in addition to nora technology group
piotek is also on the road aiming for 5
7 nanometer technology
considering the running in period in
research progress in and out of china
and the concentration of global market
shares we believe that it will take nine
years for china to catch up with the
main players
fourth it needs at least 12 years for
chinese stepper gap
in the sector of stepper asml in the
netherlands is a monopoly player taking
84 the global market share by itself and
notably the stepper market contributes
at least 20 of the whole profit of the
whole chip industrial chain it is the
only company in the world that can match
five-sevenths nanometer or even three
nanometers nodes lines in the future
it is worth noting that the netherlands
also has no way to create stepper
independently because all components are
being controlled by other countries the
light source is from the united states
the lens is from japan the nano cnc
mechanical system is from germany
restricting and promoting each other
at present the most advanced company in
china in the stepper sector is shanghai
microelectronics
at present it has successfully broken
through the technology of 90 nanometers
and can produce 28 nanometers chips
through a multi-exposure method which is
costly and cannot achieve high
production
the technology under research is 65
nanometers but it is far from the
advanced technology level of asml
the node gap is massive at least three
node levels including 28 nanometers 14
nanometers and seven nanometers and
evenly use different technics arf versus
euv
if china wants to be a market leader in
this area and realize full domestic
replacement it needs to build production
lines for all the components that came
from the united states japan and germany
instead of only creating a stepper
assemble line like asml did
considering the huge gap and the
difficulties involved in breaking
through we conservatively estimate that
it will take china at least 12 years to
reach the world advanced level 15 years
may in fact be a better estimation it
usually takes three years to build a new
components line in ship areas
fifth it needs eight years for chinese
coder and developer track gaap
in the global coder and developer
equipment market the market share of
japanese tel company has reached 88.7
reaching an absolute monopoly position
the tell lithius series is a leading
edge industry standard system with high
reliability and productivity which well
matches the seven fifths nanometer nodes
line and is favored by worldwide chip
manufacturers
however china has made a breakthrough in
this area
shenyang king semi equipment is
researching the manufacture of domestic
alternative products and has reached the
process level of 28 nanometers nodes
with 14 nanometers nodes also being a
target 6.